A Future Fit for Wales: UBI report

29 November 2021

At a glance:

  • Wales is beset with a number of economic and social problems pertaining to health, income, the social security system and the labour market.


  • Despite the limitations of the current devolution settlement, the basic income conversation in Wales is growing.


  • In this report, we platform engagements from a range of key Welsh stakeholders, who voice qualified support for basic income, often stressing it would work best combined with other policy measures. Continuous engagement with key stakeholders will likely be crucial as the basic income conversation develops in Wales.


  • In the report, we also present the findings from workshops
    conducted with Wales residents, asking them to imagine what
    they might do with a basic income. Short of a full evidence –
    based pilot, even this small evaluation shows a varied range of
    potential positive impacts.


  • Two models of basic income are modelled in
    the report. The first, an introductory basic
    income, would cut poverty in Wales in half and
    reduce inequality substantially:

    • Overall poverty rates in Wales would decrease by 50%.
    • Child poverty would decrease by 64%, bringing it to a rate of under 10% in Wales.
    • Pensioner poverty in Wales would decrease by 61%.


  • A Model 1 basic income would cost around £6 billion annually and could be paid for via reforms to the tax system in Wales, or via small reallocations of the UK spending budget.


  • A more substantial, and expensive, ‘Model 2’ basic income would almost wipe out poverty in Wales entirely. This second model ofbasic income is posed as a longer-term goal for policymakers. A basic income would stimulate millions of extra pounds in household spending, providing a boost to the economy.



  • There is a strong appetite amongst the Welsh
    public for trying basic income.

    • New polling shows that 69% of the public support Welsh
      Government trialling a basic income scheme (only 11% oppose).
    • 67% support Welsh Government increasing taxes on the very rich
      in order to provide a ‘basic standard of living for everyone in


  • The report also details a plan for a basic income
    pilot in Wales.



David Frayne
Cleo Goodman
Phil Jones
Jack Kellam
Ishan Khurana
Lukas Kikuchi
Stewart Lansley
James Muldoon
Howard Reed
Will Stronge

This report was commissioned by the Future Generations Commissioner for Wales.